Stocks had their best day since April 8 as oil fell and chips rebounded; the account rose 2.5%, a shade ahead of the S&P 500.
Nvidia was the exception, down 4.3% on a board probe of its chief executive while the chip fund SMH rose 5.1%. The account closed 0.1% above what the owner has deposited.
The account vs the market
Trades today
Every trade →| Side | Fund | Size | Price | Why | BUY | IWB Russell 1000 | 18.4% | $409.22 | Reinvested the cash from Friday's tax-loss sale of a near-identical large-company fund (SCHX), keeping the account fully in the market. |
|---|
Size is the trade as a share of the account at that day's close. Price is the average fill.
What moved the market
The trigger: oil fell and fear eased
Crude oil fell 4.2% to $87 a barrel after President Trump said a renewed military offensive in Iran was unlikely (TipRanks; price from Yahoo, Nov 9 close). The VIX fear gauge dropped 22% to 19.9, under the 20 line where we start watching it. Buyers went straight back to the stocks that fell hardest last week. The S&P 500 rose 2.4%, its best day since April 8 (SPY daily closes, Yahoo).
How it played out on Monday
Why it moved as much as it did
- It was a rebound from deep losses. Even after today the chip fund is down 4.1% over five sessions and 19.2% over a month (market map, Nov 9 closes).
- Cheaper oil helps most of the market at once. It eases the inflation worry behind a possible December Fed rate hike, which futures priced at about 79% on Monday morning (CME FedWatch).
- Energy was the one laggard: the energy fund XLE rose 0.5% and is down 7.9% on the week as the oil price fell (market map).
- Nvidia fell 4.3% on a day the chip fund rose 5.1%. Its board opened an independent probe after reports that chief executive Jensen Huang, who acknowledged an affair, was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The company says it has no reason to think secrets or national security were compromised, and he stays in the job (CNN, Yahoo Finance). It has no named successor (The Wall Street Journal via Quartz).
Where it stands
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are still below last month's record highs (CNBC). Three of our eight warning lights are still red: chips, credit and the Nasdaq trend, with the Nasdaq-100 0.1% under its 200-day average (market map). Next come Taiwan Semiconductor's October sales (around Nov 10), producer prices (Nov 13), Nvidia's earnings (Nov 17, after the close) and a House China committee briefing on the Nvidia matter (Nov 18).
The market by sector
16 sector and region funds, total return as of the Nov 9 close. Strongest first.
How the pieces connect
- Money went back into last week's losers: chips +5.1%, industrials +3.8%, tech +3.7%, small companies +3.2%, developed foreign stocks +3.0% and emerging markets +2.9%. The month's safe havens lagged: consumer staples +0.9% and health care +1.9% (market map, Nov 9 closes).
- Oil is the hinge this week. Crude fell 4.2% to $87 and energy stocks rose only 0.5%, leaving them down 7.9% on the week. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.86% and the dollar slipped 0.6%, which helped the two foreign funds the account owns (+2.9% and +3.0%).
- The fear light switched off (VIX 19.9, down 22% on the day), but credit is still red: junk bonds trailed Treasuries by 2.3% over the past month (market map), and the junk-bond spread was 3.48 on Nov 5 (FRED). Chips still trail the S&P by 15.9 points over a month. One bounce day has cleared neither light.
- The account moves about 1.1 to 1.3 times the S&P (beta) and holds more chip stocks than the S&P (about 22% vs 16% look-through), so a 2.4% market day should mean roughly 2.6 to 3.1% for us. We made 2.5%. Nvidia's own drop against the chip rally cost about 0.3 points, and the cash from Friday's tax-loss sale was only reinvested at Monday's open, missing about 1.6% of that fund's rise (another 0.3 points).
| Link | Direction | 1 month | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chips vs the S&P Is the AI trade leading or cracking? | −16.4% | falling | |
| Average stock vs the S&P Broad rally, or a few giants carrying it? | +7.3% | rising | |
| Cyclicals vs defensives What investors expect from the economy | −1.6% | falling | |
| Junk bonds vs Treasuries Credit stress usually shows here first | −2.3% | falling | |
| Small vs large companies Sensitivity to rates and credit | +4.8% | rising | |
| Copper vs gold Growth vs fear; tends to track yields | −2.4% | rising |
Rates, dollar, commodities, fear
Early warning: 3 of 8 red
Information, not trade rules. Backtested 2000 to 2026: stepping aside when the chip light turns red lost 3.4 to 6.0 points a year after tax vs holding; half its alarms were false.
What the map says we can do
- Hold through the red lights. Three of eight are still red and none is new today. Stepping aside when they fire lost 3.4 to 6.0 points a year after tax in a test we ran (failed, Nov 6). The growth mix stays.
- Nvidia: the owner asked to add after the CEO news. The desk said not now. A study of 325 executive scandals found an average 3-day drop of 1.6% (4.1% when the CEO was involved) and weaker results afterwards (Cline, Walkling and Yore, 2018), and two dated events land within 9 days (earnings Nov 17, the House briefing Nov 18) while the board's probe is open. The question goes to the Nov 22 weekly review with a written expected return and a bad case set against Nvidia's own 66% fall in 2022 (untested).
- Tax losses: the momentum fund MTUM still sits under its purchase price, but its near-identical fund SPMO is off limits until Dec 2 under the wash-sale rule, so the daily check waits (a standing tax rule, not a return bet).
- Energy after the oil drop: EOG only clears our bar near $110, and it has fallen 47 to 74% in past oil collapses. Buying the energy dip stays off the table unless a stock passes the same company test (untested as a strategy).
The account at the close
| Holding | Weight | Day | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONEQ Nasdaq Composite | 19.7% | +2.7% | +0.54 |
| MTUM US momentum | 19.6% | +4.8% | +0.93 |
| IWB Russell 1000 | 18.6% | +2.4% | +0.44 |
| VOO S&P 500 | 17.4% | +2.4% | +0.41 |
| IEMG Emerging markets | 6.9% | +2.9% | +0.20 |
| RSP S&P 500 equal weight | 6.7% | +2.2% | +0.15 |
| IEFA Developed markets ex-US | 5.1% | +3.0% | +0.16 |
| NVDA Nvidia | 3.0% | −4.3% | −0.14 |
| TSM TSMC | 2.4% | +3.5% | +0.08 |
| Cash Settling or waiting to be invested | 0.6% | ||
| Trades, fees and cash today | −0.29 | ||
Rules and how close they are
| Rule | Fires at | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA automatic sell line | $155.48 | $178.57, fires after a further 12.9% fall | watch |
| Re-check any holding at -25% from cost | −25% | NVDA −19.6%, fires after a further 6.7% fall; MTUM and TSM about 21% above their lines | watch |
| Junk-bond spreads (credit stress) | 4.00 | 3.48 on Nov 5 (FRED), 13% below | watch |
| Nasdaq-100 trailing the S&P over 6 months | 15 points | 6.8 points (QQQ vs SPY, May 8 to Nov 9, Yahoo) | clear |
| Broad dollar index up 5% | 126.6 | 121.88 on Nov 6 (FRED), fires after a further 3.9% rise | clear |
| Nasdaq fund (ONEQ) or momentum fund (MTUM) above 25% of the account | 25% | 19.7% and 19.6% | clear |
| Any single foreign fund above 18% | 18% | 6.9% (IEMG) | clear |
Research
EOG Resources (EOG), after its earnings
PASSEOG is one of the largest US oil and gas producers. Its quarter was excellent: record output, costs under plan, net debt down 28% in three months and the dividend raised 8% (company release, Nov 5). Our warning signs held, though next year's growth may land near the 3% line we set: the company previewed 'low single digit' oil growth, and the formal plan comes in February. The stock is still down 10.6% from its Oct 30 high because oil fell from about $108 to $87 (FRED, Yahoo). That is the real risk. In past oil collapses EOG fell 47% (2014-16), 65% (2008-09) and 74% (2018-20) (Robinhood weekly closes). At $148.39 it returns about 3.8% a year on our cases, far under our 12% bar, and it only clears the bar near $110. It comes off the watch list. No trade.
Next
- Tuesday 08:45: the morning run checks every rule and the daily tax-loss list. No trades are queued.
- Watchdog every 20 minutes in market hours: the Nvidia sell line ($155.48), plus an alert on a 2% or 4% move in the account.
- Tuesday 15:30: evening review and research. Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) reported Monday morning and is next; Venture Global (VG) reports Tuesday morning.
Sources: Robinhood (account, closes, filings, weekly price history), Yahoo Finance (index, oil and fund closes), FRED (junk-bond spreads, dollar, oil), CNBC, TipRanks, CNN, Quartz (citing The Wall Street Journal), CME FedWatch, EOG Resources (release, call), The Motley Fool (call transcript), Journal of Financial Economics (Cline, Walkling and Yore, 2018).